22 Dec 2008

To a Brighter Future

This is the season that traditionally comes with a surfeit of comfort and joy, but it’s difficult to escape the consumer gluttony that’s now omnipresent in the run-up to one of the most significant days in the Christian calendar. As I joined the stampede in Sainsburys which appeared to lack goodwill to any man, I pondered whether there will be a similar rush to High Street travel agents during the peak booking season that usually gets underway before the turkey has cooled.

Any glad tidings are tempered this year with a sombre retrospective that an epochal storm in global economies has unfolded with such intensity and speed it left the pundits reeling. With the recession now in full swing, belt-tightening Brits will be thinking long and hard about where to holiday in 2009.

Declining demand for travel has already forced many airlines, hotels, cruise lines and tour operators to get aggressive in their pricing; and now that the Pound is little more than a cent away from parity with the Euro, the situation our industry faces is decidedly gloomy. A 15% drop in the buying power of the pound in the Eurozone in the last twelve months, coupled with the recent plunge of Sterling against the US Dollar, are significant factors and will have repercussions for all travellers, both professional and leisure.

Research by VisitBritain and VisitLondon found that, while 90% of the population claim to be cutting down on spending, just 45% plan to cut back on holidays. These findings support a recent survey by TUI (Thomson and First Choice) holidaymakers who said that their main annual holiday would be the last expense they would give up. Indeed, BAA, operators of our main airports, remain bullish saying the evidence of previous economic downturns showed “passengers volumes will recover in due course”. Cold comfort in a cold climate.

2009 will arrive a second late when time across the globe is adjusted to account for the changes in the Earth’s rotation, but will the ‘leap second’ be enough to save our industry from meltdown? A New Year is about renewal, an opportunity to put things on track and set aside the mayhem of the previous year. Let’s raise a glass to a brighter future.

Gary Buchanan

Vice-Chairman, BGTW